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Accept Defeat: The Neuroscience of Screwing Up

This is a brilliant piece from Jonah Lehrer in Wired about how scientists get bottled up by their own preconceptions and groupthink and miss the discoveries their research is accidentally uncovering. Key paragraphs:

While the scientific process is typically seen as a lonely pursuit — researchers solve problems by themselves — Dunbar found that most new scientific ideas emerged from lab meetings, those weekly sessions in which people publicly present their data. Interestingly, the most important element of the lab meeting wasn’t the presentation — it was the debate that followed. Dunbar observed that the skeptical (and sometimes heated) questions asked during a group session frequently triggered breakthroughs, as the scientists were forced to reconsider data they’d previously ignored. The new theory was a product of spontaneous conversation, not solitude; a single bracing query was enough to turn scientists into temporary outsiders, able to look anew at their own work.

But not every lab meeting was equally effective. Dunbar tells the story of two labs that both ran into the same experimental problem: The proteins they were trying to measure were sticking to a filter, making it impossible to analyze the data. “One of the labs was full of people from different backgrounds,” Dunbar says. “They had biochemists and molecular biologists and geneticists and students in medical school.” The other lab, in contrast, was made up of E. coli experts. “They knew more about E. coli than anyone else, but that was what they knew,” he says. Dunbar watched how each of these labs dealt with their protein problem. The E. coli group took a brute-force approach, spending several weeks methodically testing various fixes. “It was extremely inefficient,” Dunbar says. “They eventually solved it, but they wasted a lot of valuable time.”

The diverse lab, in contrast, mulled the problem at a group meeting. None of the scientists were protein experts, so they began a wide-ranging discussion of possible solutions. At first, the conversation seemed rather useless. But then, as the chemists traded ideas with the biologists and the biologists bounced ideas off the med students, potential answers began to emerge. “After another 10 minutes of talking, the protein problem was solved,” Dunbar says. “They made it look easy.”

When Dunbar reviewed the transcripts of the meeting, he found that the intellectual mix generated a distinct type of interaction in which the scientists were forced to rely on metaphors and analogies to express themselves. (That’s because, unlike the E. coli group, the second lab lacked a specialized language that everyone could understand.) These abstractions proved essential for problem-solving, as they encouraged the scientists to reconsider their assumptions. Having to explain the problem to someone else forced them to think, if only for a moment, like an intellectual on the margins, filled with self-skepticism.

This is why other people are so helpful: They shock us out of our cognitive box. “I saw this happen all the time,” Dunbar says. “A scientist would be trying to describe their approach, and they’d be getting a little defensive, and then they’d get this quizzical look on their face. It was like they’d finally understood what was important.”

What turned out to be so important, of course, was the unexpected result, the experimental error that felt like a failure. The answer had been there all along — it was just obscured by the imperfect theory, rendered invisible by our small-minded brain. It’s not until we talk to a colleague or translate our idea into an analogy that we glimpse the meaning in our mistake. Bob Dylan, in other words, was right: There’s no success quite like failure.

I’ve seen this dynamic at work many times during my career. It is an example of why I believe Climategate explodes the consensus on AGW. Groupthink does happen and it can be tremendously expensive when designing a product. One major advantage to hiring a contract engineer (like one of our Endorsed Service Providers) is the dispassionate point of view they bring to the process.

PassageMaker also brings a detached, professional perspective to a project. As I’ve written before, inventors really need a partner who is not in love with their idea. Just as alcohol is responsible for no end of bad marriages, pursuing a flawed design concept because you are drunk with the beauty of your own concept is a really, really bad idea.

You must freeze the design

I never played Duke Nukem, but this article is a must read for anyone thinking about launching a new product of any kind.

In order for any project to be successful, you have to freeze the design at some point. You have to get to “good enough” and go to market. I have seen inventors spend years tweaking a design, making changes after tooling is begun, even buying and then scrapping 1st, 2nd and even 3rd generation tooling when they have the next ‘great’ idea. They forget that they need to actually sell something. When they finally run out of money, often they are genuinely surprised.

PassageMaker is well versed in Vendor Coordination, especially during the critical product development phase, and our Endorsed Service Providers for design engineering know how take a sketch on a cocktail napkin and turn it into a finished design database, ready for manufacturing. We can and do counsel our clients, but ultimately, they are the ones who have to decide when to move forward. And creative people can sometimes be too darned creative for their own good.

Racism in China

Fascinating piece on Lou Jing, a young Chinese woman who happens to be black.

My wife and I experienced some of this when we lived in Taiwan. She is half-Vietnamese, so the assumption was that she was an ABC (American Born Chinese). She doesn’t speak a word of Chinese, and she is also a healthy, beautiful American woman, meaning she has a figure and weighs more than 89 pounds.

The reaction she got from people, especially shop keepers, blew my mind. Several of them nearly got punched in the face.

“You’re too fat!”, “half-breed!” and “why didn’t your mother teach you Chinese?” got thrown at her regularly. I would tell them to shove off and not translate. She eventually learned the word for “fat” and that led to quite a few fireworks.

As a white guy, I never had a problem other than the occasional “lao wai” and the passive-aggressive “screw the foreigner” attitude. But I have seen the way blacks are treated, and it is shocking. Once in Taiwan, a black student at one of the universities was walking through a night market with his Chinese girlfriend and the crowd parted like the Red Sea parted for Moses. All eyes were on them and the hushed commentary buzzed with the scandal of it all.

There are many advantages to having a common language (something the Spanish advocates in the USA forget or choose to ignore), but the demographic dominance of Han Chinese creates its own problems. For all of America’s flaws, we still handle our multi-racial society better than most. As China continues to open to the world, I hope this particular part of their culture matures quickly.

Blizzard of 2009

091219 blizzard of 09

Picture out my kitchen window (taken with my Blackberry Storm 2) so far 18 inches and still snowing…

091219 blizzard of 09

There is a (probably apocryphal) story I’ve heard a few times over the years from travelers to China about the Chinese method of snow removal in the provinces. Basically they drive a diesel tanker down the road with the rear valves open to spray fuel on the road. Then they light the fuel. Very effective, I’m told.

If anyone can confirm or refute this story, please let me know.

Heading out for bonfire and sledding now!

Battle Between U.S. and China Threatens Climate Conference

Fascinating article about the politicking going on in Copenhagen. Regardless of what the greens want, China and India won’t be going along. They have too many mouths to feed. And they especially won’t be going along after Climategate and the recent Russian bombshell.

2010 should be an interesting year.

www.autoextremist.com

Just in time for the holidays, my gift to you. If you don’t read Autoextremist, you should. This week’s year-end wrap-up Rant is required reading for anyone interested in the global auto industry. If you’re an American taxpayer, you’re interested now. Like it our not, you own two of the “Big Three”. This is more important reading than the annual reports from either GM or Chrysler (*shudder*).

The April Fool’s entry is particularly priceless, mostly because the idea that the Chinese had the money to buy both companies for cash is not that far-fetched.

Blogging will probably be light for the rest of the Holidays. Merry Christmas!

4 PM on a Friday

I come from the automotive world. People who don’t understand the automotive industry can’t fathom how completely different it is from every other industry out there.

The worst hour of the week in the automotive industry is 4:00 PM to 5:00 PM on a Friday. It is that nightmarish 60 minutes when Murphy’s Law takes shape and capers about like a mad, evil leprechaun bent on wrecking your weekend.

Why you ask, did I dread this hour? Why dread an hour that for every other person in every other industry is a clock watching semi-holiday where little to nothing gets done?

Because if something catastrophic is going to happen, it will happen at 4:00 PM on a Friday, never 8:00 AM on a Tuesday. The crisis always starts when there is no time to react, no time to rationally analyze the situation, no time to do anything but panic.

More times than I can count, the call would come in that there was a problem at one of our customers’ plants, and if we didn’t get parts to the line by 8:00 AM Saturday, they would go “line-down”, meaning the end of the world. The assembly line is shut down and the charge backs start at $100,000 per hour.

And when I got there, it was rarely our fault. Sometimes it wasn’t even our part that was to blame. I can remember one such trip to an assembly plant where we discovered that the problem had to do with a mating wire harness supplied by someone else. Our part functioned perfectly, but it was my wife and kids who got the short end of the deal when Daddy had to drop everything to drive several hours to work with the night shift QC tech to fix the (non-existent) problem.

I thought of this 4:00 PM phenomenon today, but in a good way. The last few weeks have been crammed with new clients contacting PassageMaker wanting to launch new projects, some of which have been on hold for a year or more. All want to get things going before the end of the year, as though the difference between now and January is critical.

Hopefully this is a sign of the recovery to come.

Meet the HOODIO!

Another awesome product from our clients, LimbGear! The Hoodio is an MP3 enabled jacket, and LimbGear specializes in the professional and collegiate sports markets, so you will be able to get the Hoodio with your favorite sports team logo.

PassageMaker will be managing the supply chain for LimbGear, including garment customization at our Assembly Center in Buji. Our Endorsed Service Provider, Camrett Logistics, will manage the order processing and fulfillment in the USA, providing a complete supply chain for our client.

Have a great weekend and make sure to get your Hoodio in 2010!

World War II veteran Bill Overstreet: ‘A legend indeed’

I don’t read my local paper, The Roanoke Times, often, but this article today caught my eye – very cool, flying a plane under the Eiffel Tower during a dog fight in WWII.

Have a great weekend!

Headline – “China burns U.S. consumers again”

Here’s an interesting editorial from the Idaho Mountain Express (4 Nov 09), sent to me by Julien Roger of China Quality Focus, which is short enough to quote in full.

In their headlong rush for global respectability as a hybrid Communist-free market power, mainland Chinese masters of the world’s largest population omitted a vital function required of great industrial countries: manufacturing quality control.

U.S. consumers have been burned repeatedly by inferior, even deadly, Chinese products—lead-painted toys, toxic pet food and sickening seafood products.

It’s happened again. Chinese-made drywall used in construction is being investigated as the source of illness among U.S. homeowners. The drywall literally stinks and may cost homeowners plenty to replace.

Hundreds of thousands of mom-and-pop industries have appeared in the midst of China’s relaxed, free-enterprise attitudes. However, they’re mostly unregulated and have virtually no quality control.

U.S. companies that have swooned over less expensive goods have been importing these substandard products.

And during accelerated trade with China and the expansion of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. government cut the budgets of two important watchdogs, the Food and Drug Administration and the Consumer Products Safety Commission. In one FDA program, only 1 percent of imported products were tested for quality and safety.

Two urgent actions are required.

First, Washington should beef up product health and safety inspections on all imports, but especially those from China.

Second, Congress should remove incentives for U.S. companies to rely on overseas vendors for products, while creating incentives to revive robust domestic manufacturing that restores jobs and strengthens the U.S. economy.

I shall refrain from addressing the tone of the piece, but to address the substantive points:

  • Yes, there are quality problems in China, as there have been in any developing industrial base throughout history. It is foolish to deny it, just as it is foolish to deny that there is defective cable supporting the Brooklyn Bridge. As was beautifully recounted in David McCullough’s The Great Bridge, the cable manufacturing company owned by the principle engineer, Washington Roebling, was eliminated from the project because of politically motivated charges of corruption part of the way through stringing the the suspension cables. Despite the fact the fact that the competitor was behind the accusations and was known to be a purveyor of shoddy goods, the bridge was finished with his cable, which Roebling later found to be as brittle as straw. Thus over 100 years later, New York commuters are still relying on Roebling’s good cable to carry the load of the charlatan’s defective cable. Quality problems are endemic to the human condition. Just examine the quality of the legislation oozing out of Washington 200+ years after the ratification of the Constitution. At least there is reasonable hope that China will get better, not worse as their industrial base matures.
  • Yes, defective products have made it to the USA, and some are truly and legitimately defective. But others are not, simply rejected by the hyper-sensitive inspection criteria made up by the inventors of the Wiffle Ball Life. Of the truly defective ones, some are defective due to the mendacity of individuals, but some are also defective because of poor vendor management and poor quality control regimes on the part of the customers. At PassageMaker and China Quality Focus see this everyday, clients whose drawings specify no materials, who require no international standards to be met, and who often don’t even include critical dimensions on the drawings. They expect the Chinese factories to do ALL the heavy lifting while complaining constantly about price and lead-times.
  • “Hundreds of thousands of mom-and-pops” appear in a “free-enterprise” environment?Would that it were so here in the USA.
  • US manufacturers like me were driven to source in Mexico, in Eastern Europe, in Asia, by corporate buyers. It didn’t happen by accident. When you are explicitly told to outsource or lose the business, what do you expect?
  • Even if the author is correct about the budgets on the federal agencies (which I doubt, as nothing in Washington ever actually gets cut), I make a point of counting on the government for a little as possible in my life. The burden should rest on the producer and the importer, and in reality it already does.

As to the solutions offered:

  1. As stated above, I don’t count on the government for much, but we’ve got 17.5% effective unemployment and hundreds of billions of dollars borrowed from the Chinese sloshing around DC paying off one favored group after another. I imagine some could be applied to this worthy cause. Someone should get right on that. Maybe write an editorial about it.
  2. What incentives to outsource? I’ve been in American manufacturing all my life, and in my experience, our decision to start outsourcing over two decades ago was driven by market conditions and the direct orders of corporate buyers. We outsourced what made sense and retained our manufacturing capacity for those parts that were best made in the USA. For that “patriotic” decision I have never seen a representative from ANY government agency do anything but deliver a bill. I have nothing but utter contempt for the regulatory and tax authorities in this country, and anyone who thinks there is a single human being in Washington who knows how to “create” a manufacturing job is sadly mistaken.

The real solution to America’s manufacturing situation has to do with demographics, labor laws, regulations and taxes, and I’ve had enough of discussing it for a lifetime. Take it away, Jon Stewart (Not Safe For Work)!

However, there are simple and effective ways to ensure the quality of the products you source in China, and that is precisely what PassageMaker and China Quality Focus exist to help clients do. It is on the buyer’s shoulders to specify the criteria for the product, and it is the buyer who is responsible for establishing a quality control regime to make sure the criteria are met. Contact us and we’ll be happy to show you how it’s done.